EU-Ukraine Trade at a Crossroads:
A Strategic Perspective

As the European Union debates the extension of Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs) for Ukraine, the discussion must move beyond market concerns to its broader strategic significance. Since 2022, these measures have provided Ukraine with a crucial economic lifeline, generating €5 billion in export revenues. However, their expiration in mid-2024 has fueled political tensions within the EU, particularly in the agricultural sector, leading to polarization and rising support for populist movements. At the same time, Russia is exploiting these divisions by expanding its agricultural influence in Africa and other global markets, filling gaps left by disrupted Ukrainian exports. A strategic EU approach could not only ease internal market pressures but also counter Russian influence, reinforcing European security, migration policies, and long-term economic resilience. To achieve this, deeper EU-Ukraine coordination is essential—establishing joint food security initiatives, crisis response mechanisms, and financial support for global food programs. Additionally, the EU can leverage Ukrainian imports through inward processing customs regimes to strengthen its agriprocessing industries and global competitiveness. At this critical moment, EU High Representative Kaja Kallas calls for a shift from being an “invisible donor” to a visible geopolitical actor. Moving beyond short-term trade concerns, the EU must use its economic power strategically to support Ukraine, stabilize markets, and reinforce its own global standing. This event will explore the broader strategic stakes at play. Beyond market concerns, the EU must leverage its economic power as a geopolitical tool to maintain stability, counter external threats, and sustain support for Ukraine.